Hydrologic and geologic systems are highly dynamic, heterogeneous, and uncertain. In this seminar, I will first describe an adaptive reliability-based decision framework that was developed to address the uncertainty issues in managing water supply operations in the Tampa Bay region. The presentation will cover integrated surface water-groundwater modeling, spatially and temporally correlated rainfall and water demand time series simulations, transfer function noise analysis. Then, I will describe the current and future extensions of this framework to evaluate stochastic aquifer safe yield, ecologic recovery, climate change impacts using downscaled results from general circulation models, and long-term water availability planning. Last, I will discuss the plans on utilizing this approach to support real-time decision making for mitigating flood, landslide, and avalanche risks. The discussion will embrace integration of data from local sensors and remote sensing for rainfall and snowpack estimation, forecasting, system updating, and reliability analysis.

The lecture can be attended without previous notice.